In our last quarterly newsletter, I offered my view that the broad stock indexes are getting close to the end of their multi-decade upward trend but still have some positive returns left. We saw the snapback in the second quarter of this year. I believe the S&P500 is THE most important economic indicator in the […]
We’re off to a pretty good start for the year in our portfolios despite the negative returns in the broader market. Our goal is to realize as many gains as we can throughout the year as opportunity permits because the second half of the year promises to be even more volatile. As I mentioned in […]
2026 is going to be a year that is analyzed for decades as people try to understand all the factors that seemed to converge in a short time. I’ve been covering many of these factors for years in this missive and in the 2nd Derivative section of our website. https://geovestadvisors.com/the-second-derivative/ The conditions are in place […]
Equity markets in the US are calmly making new highs even as chaos seems to grip the world. As I’ve been writing for years, this is the lesson government financial managers learned from the 2008 crisis. Keep equity markets elevated and chaos can be managed. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implied this in interviews […]
2025 is playing out much like we anticipated. The US economy keeps slowly weakening even as the equity markets remain elevated. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is rapidly deteriorating, less so Europe and non-China Asia. Equity markets don’t reflect the degree of economic malaise that exists across the globe because global central banks have learned that […]
We’re entering a new economic cycle in the US. Thus, 2025 is likely to be ugly in the economy and the markets. The good news is that I’ve been writing to you about this for the past two years. We prepared ahead of time which is why our first quarter performance was good. We are […]
Change comes at a price. The US electorate voted to go in a different direction from the prevailing policies of the past 30 years. Moving forward, the US will focus on enriching the US economy at the expense of the global economy but it will prove costly for many because changing directions means losses for […]
Pax Stabilitas The title of this piece is Latin for peace and stability and it follows last quarters piece titled “Deus ex Machina” or Ghost in the Machine. I’ve been finding inspiration in antiquity because much of the chaos we are experiencing has happened before and we are still here. We represent the survivors of […]
Deus Ex Machina The title to this piece is a Latin translation from the original ancient Greek which literally means “God in the machine.” The term came into being on the ancient Greek stage as a way to end a play with divine intervention such as a hero being lowered from a rope onto the […]
