GeoVest Advisors

Red Lining the Economic Engine A classic television commercial from my youth for motor oil showed the tachometer of a car that was revved up past its red line that subsequently stalled.  The commercial was designed to convince car owners to change their oil more frequently – and to use Quaker State Motor Oil.  Tachometers […]

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GeoVest Advisors

The World is a Market Shakespeare gave us this famous line in his play “As You Like It.”  “All the world’s a stage, and all men and women merely players.  They have their exits and their entrances; and one man in his time plays many parts.”   I would like to amend that quote for today […]

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GeoVest Advisors

Barriers to Exit The great Harvard professor Michael Porter coined the term “barriers to exit” in his groundbreaking book “Competitive Strategy” which taught a generation of young analysts how to analyze industries and companies.  Written in 1980, it is the one book that has influenced my work more than any other.  “Barriers to exit” refers […]

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GeoVest Advisors

Paradoxes Everywhere Over the last few years, I have used the word “paradox” a lot in my writing mostly because so much simply does not make sense without a ton of digging and consideration.  Paradox: a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated or explained may prove to be well founded or […]

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GeoVest Advisors

The S&P500 returned 7.5% for the first quarter of 2023 despite the loss of a few banks including the giant Swiss bank Credit Suisse. In fact, the stock market followed a familiar script where the markets pull back in response to some negative stimuli (in this case it was bank failure) which is then followed […]

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GeoVest Advisors

Flows Interrupted 2022 was a rough year in the capital markets.  The S&P500 lost 19% while long term bonds lost around 12% and corporate bonds around 15%.  As you would expect, our accounts performed better.  In our stock picking for 2022, we enjoyed success in companies tied to the defense, food, auto supply, electric, and […]

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GeoVest Advisors

Inflation to Deflation Our overarching investment thesis is that we are at the end of a long economic, social, and market cycle.  This framework has allowed us to slowly modify our clients’ portfolios instead of reacting to the wild gyrations in the markets that are a function of uncertainty about the future.  It also helps […]

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GeoVest Advisors

In his 2020 investors meeting, the great value-investor Warren Buffett said: “American magic has always prevailed, and it will do so again”.  In the 19th century, Otto Von Bismark, the great Prussian statesman credited with creating modern Germany, was quoted as saying: “There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States […]

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GeoVest Advisors

It’s Just the Cycle Has the world gone crazy? It really seems that way to me each morning when I start reading about the overnight events around the world. There is so much change occurring that in many ways, I think we have become inured to the developments that we would have considered insane not […]

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