Paradoxes Everywhere Over the last few years, I have used the word “paradox” a lot in my writing mostly because so much simply does not make sense without a ton of digging and consideration. Paradox: a seemingly absurd or self-contradictory statement or proposition that when investigated or explained may prove to be well founded or […]
The S&P500 returned 7.5% for the first quarter of 2023 despite the loss of a few banks including the giant Swiss bank Credit Suisse. In fact, the stock market followed a familiar script where the markets pull back in response to some negative stimuli (in this case it was bank failure) which is then followed […]
Flows Interrupted 2022 was a rough year in the capital markets. The S&P500 lost 19% while long term bonds lost around 12% and corporate bonds around 15%. As you would expect, our accounts performed better. In our stock picking for 2022, we enjoyed success in companies tied to the defense, food, auto supply, electric, and […]
Inflation to Deflation Our overarching investment thesis is that we are at the end of a long economic, social, and market cycle. This framework has allowed us to slowly modify our clients’ portfolios instead of reacting to the wild gyrations in the markets that are a function of uncertainty about the future. It also helps […]
In his 2020 investors meeting, the great value-investor Warren Buffett said: “American magic has always prevailed, and it will do so again”. In the 19th century, Otto Von Bismark, the great Prussian statesman credited with creating modern Germany, was quoted as saying: “There is a Providence that protects idiots, drunkards, children and the United States […]
It’s Just the Cycle Has the world gone crazy? It really seems that way to me each morning when I start reading about the overnight events around the world. There is so much change occurring that in many ways, I think we have become inured to the developments that we would have considered insane not […]
The China Syndrome The volatility that we warned of in our last newsletter finally arrived in December and thankfully resulted in some very strong gains in our client portfolios. What had been a disappointing year turned into a good year. And while we are only a week into the New Year at the time of […]
Supply Chain Blues As a young research analyst in the early 1990’s, I learned all about Japan’s manufacturing competitive advantages which were based on a concept known as “Just-In-Time Processing”. Shortened to the acronym JIT, it’s based on Toyota’s approach to manufacturing which calls for close relationships with suppliers where you can trust that the […]
Inflation Frustration Pundits are forecasting high inflation, even hyperinflation in some cases. There are signs everywhere of higher prices. Used cars, lumber, electronic gadgets, food, houses and gasoline are just some of the examples. The Federal Reserve is getting the blame but I believe Congressional spending packages are the real reason. Accepting this, it’s hard […]
